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Election 2008 and the Stock Market Rally

An amazing thing happened today. Financial media all noticed that there was an election going on, and there might be some impact on stocks. Amazing!

There are two reasons why this story has been left behind:

1) The crisis in financial markets has created stock movements that overwhelmed any bump that one might get from picking an “Obama stock.” When the market moves 10% in a day, with all assets moving together, little else matters.

2) The economic recession is reducing candidate options. There will be some kind of economic stimulus program, but this will not affect stocks in sectors like health care or alternative energy.

Today’s Sudden Awareness

Two things happened today. We had the long-awaited Presidential election, and the stock market rebounded from deeply oversold levels. Through some of the most tortured logic we have ever seen, nearly everyone in the financial media tried to link these two events. Wow!

Since it was obvious that the rally was broad based, including not only the “Obama stocks” but some “anti-Obama” entries, like major oil companies. That might have had something to do with OPEC production cuts, crude spiking by about $7, and the front-month gasoline futures popping about eighteen cents.

The explanation is pretty easy. Financial media need stories, and this was the story of the day. The rather lame explanation was that “uncertainty was reduced.”

Investor Implications

For those seeking investments based upon the election, there is good news. You have a glorious opportunity. For the first time in our experience, the market did not accurately anticipate the election. Other issues have been even more important.

The Obama program (most likely since as we write this, Pennsylvania and Ohio have been called for him) has become rather ill-defined. We all know the original platform, but circumstances have changed this plan quite dramatically.

Our own plan is to draw upon the research on the site and closely monitor the appointments and proposals. Through this process we expect to fulfill our mission of helping investors use political insight to make winning investments.

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