The Democratic contest continues to present twists and turns, with the race going down to the wire. The most recent challenge for Sen. Obama came with attention to his chosen church and the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright, Jr. News stations carried clips of sermons. Obama distanced himself from the most controversial statements, but critics emphasized his choice of a church and his relationship with Wright. John Fout does a nice job of highlighting the development of this issue. Check out his article to see the events leading up to the speech, as well as some good commentary.

A response was needed.

The effect of the speech can be measured in different ways. Let us consider the reaction of pundits, of focus groups, and prediction markets.

The Punditry

Sen. Obama decided it was time to confront the issues directly, delivering a powerful speech on the issue of race. The message received critical acclaim, as noted in the reactions summarized by TIME. Check out the entire article for comments from a variety of political experts.

Lars Thorwold, writing at Daily Kos, emphasized the significance that the candidate wrote the speech himself, something rather rare in the modern Presidential era.

Voter Reaction

Media commentators and critics have very few votes, of course. They have influence because many who do not hear a speech or a debate form impressions from what they read.

In the age of the Internet, things are a bit different. The speech has gotten over two million hits on YouTube, showing that many want to get their own information.

The Election Effect

A crucial question is how various groups responded to the message. Readers can gain some insight by checking out an interesting focus group test at MediaCurves.com. Focus group research is a well-established technique in marketing and in testing campaign advertising. The viewers are classified into various groups, by party, ethnicity, gender, or other factors. Viewers watch snippets of the presentation and twist a dial indicating the degree of agreement with what is said. It is fun to watch the graphic reactions on screen while viewing the speech.

In general, the reactions were more supportive among African-American viewers and more skeptical among others, especially Republicans. Some themes did achieve generally positive reactions.

Focus Groups versus Voters

One question about focus groups is how the members are selected. Any time responses come from volunteers, the self-selected nature of the respondents may not give a good overall picture. It is interesting, but not conclusive.

The changes in the InTrade prediction market show the overall “market” reaction — an initial spike followed by a bit of a fade. (click image to enlarge)

Conclusion

The New York Times analysis is that the ball is back in Sen. Clinton’s court.

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton needs three breaks to wrest the Democratic presidential nomination from Senator Barack Obama in the view of her advisers.

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton at a rally Wednesday in Detroit. Michigan Democrats signaled that a new primary was unlikely.

She has to defeat Mr. Obama soundly in Pennsylvania next month to buttress her argument that she holds an advantage in big general election states.

She needs to lead in the total popular vote after the primaries end in June.

And Mrs. Clinton is looking for some development to shake confidence in Mr. Obama so that superdelegates, Democratic Party leaders and elected officials who are free to decide which candidate to support overturn his lead among the pledged delegates from primaries and caucuses.